Tuesday, July 22, 2008


It was reported in the media recently that foreign investors who bought into Safaricom's IPO, were on average responsible for about half the shares sold on the NSE.

That they are getting out is worrying enough - as it would definitely undermine the confidence that people have in the share and probably influence more sell-offs.

But more telling and perhaps more worrying is the fact that their sell-offs have had ready buyers in the name of Fund Managers. Big funds like NSSF, Old Mutual, BAAM etc.

These are likely buyers whose initial appetite for the stock was unmet by the dismal allocation percentages and had therefore planned to come to the secondary market to satisfy their needs.

However, recently Safaricom has begun to dip touching new lows this week.

What is most worrying is that investor appetite may have been met and additional shares to the market may not see the uptake that has been there.

This essentially would mean more shares on offer than buyers available.

The price it doesnt take a genius to see would head only one way -South.

And the fundamentals that people ignored for so long - that you cant have everyone buying into a share and expecting it to rise - who would be buying? --are coming true.